Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Earnings Season: Nothing But a Confirmation

The market was down considerably yet again today. Why? Should investors start getting worried again? Short story, the rally is not over. Do not look at this as a sign to sell, but consider it an opportunity to buy more at a lower price. Remember dollar cost averaging? Now is the perfect time to implement that method.

The day kicked off with a survey of CEO's and how much growth they were expecting. Almost 70% expected a decrease in sales and earnings during the last quarter. This does not bode well for this earnings season. Upfront, you have nothing to look forward to. Alcoa affirmed what everyone thought as their earnings dropped yet again as the price of aluminum is down over 50%.

I want to give a shout out to all the morons who do not pay attention. Earnings are supposed to be BAD for the first quarter! These earnings are not forecasts for the next 3 months. These numbers come straight from sales during the recession. Yes, numbers from a recession are supposed to be bad. Another thank you to all the morons who sell upon the confirmation of all we have expected for the past 3 months. I am glad you all sold stocks when bad news was forecasted and then sold again once the forecast became reality. You need only to sell once.

Once again, this is not another rally. The market is not about to fall off another cliff. We are going to pause and bounce around a little bit until we get all the earnings out of the way and restore optimism so we can enjoy the sliver of what used to be again. Use this earnings season as a way to get back into the game again. Do not let anyone scare you into thinking otherwise. We all knew earnings were going to be bad. It is just being confirmed with the down days in the market. This is the perfect time to start making cash money again.

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